More colleges and universities have disclosed Fall 2021 enrollment data this week, and the information extends downward trend lines begun more than 10 years ago and made steeper by the pandemic.

Inside Higher Ed reports that Lane Community College (Eugene, OR) posted a decline of 20 percent compared to Fall 2020, added to a 14 percent decline between Fall 2019 and Fall 2020. The institution reports its has lost about a third of its student body since March 2020. (www.insidehighered.com)

In addition, the multi-campus Maricopa Community College system in metro Phoenix, one of the largest in the nation, disclosed another four percent enrollment decline for Fall 2021, on top of a 15 percent for 2020. The Maricopa system had to cut $3 million from its operating budget based on the prior enrollment drop; no indication how much more operating resources are at risk due to 2021 student population shrinkage.

The latest snapshot of the magnitude and nature of diminished enrollment demand has elements that substantially reinforce the foundational purposes and assumptions of the Transformation Collaborative.

“We’re going to need to dig out of this hole or be faced with some tough decisions,”

one campus leader opines. Another supports the need to become a "leaner, more efficient" college, or even a smaller institution if the enrollment decline persists for several years.

The facts of post-secondary education in Fall 2021 include the following:

·         Enrollment demand stability from foreign student enrollment has evaporated due to the pandemic prohibitions against in-person attendance

·         The federal HEERF (Covid relief) funds will be exhausted in the current or subsequent budget cycle; after that, the perpetual impact of smaller enrollment will hit hard

·         Capped tuition rates or even discounts offered during pandemic “on-line only” instruction have had little to no impact on preserving enrollment levels

·         Rural community colleges are plagued by lack of proximity to student population centers; urban community colleges blame competition from proprietary career schools as a factor in their enrollment demand weakness.

Read the full report at www.insidehighered.com